Speaking anonymously to far-left NBC News, Kamala Harris campaign staffers say they are concerned about losing the swing states of Michigan and North Carolina.
As you will see below, the loss of those two states would narrow Kamala’s path to victory considerably.
On-the-record staffers claim to be bullish about these must-win states, but campaigns that believe they are about to lose leak this kind of DoomSpeak, and that appears to be what we have here:
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
“While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory,” NBC continued, adding, “four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.”
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” an anonymous Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
If Harris loses Michigan and North Carolina, but wins every swing state where the race is closest — Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she still loses the election, 267 electoral votes to Trump’s 277. In that scenario, she would have to add either Georgia or Arizona to her win pile.
If she loses Nevada (where the early vote looks terrible for her), along with Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina, but wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona — she still loses the election, 266 electoral votes to 272.
If she loses Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, but wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia, she squeaks out a 271 electoral vote win to Trump’s 267.
So, Harris is facing very limited pathways to victory while Trump has multiple paths.
It’s also hard to imagine Trump winning a state like Michigan and not taking a Wisconsin or Pennsylvania with him. Not since 1988 have those three states not fallen in unison.
Here’s the thing, though, in the RealClearPolitics average poll of state polls, Trump currently leads in all seven swing states. Yes, the leads are narrow, but there is a consistency to them that must rattle Democrats.
Oddly enough, at least according to the public polling, Harris’s best state right now is North Carolina, where she’s led in two of the last three polls, the third being a tie.
Georgia appears to be pulling away from her. Same with Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin could still go either way. Arizona looks like Trump country. The public polling says Nevada is a toss-up, but the early votes coming in say Trump is in good shape.
Using the public polling, let’s give Kamala the states where she’s behind but competitive — North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin…
She still loses 258 electoral votes to Trump’s 280.
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