The first U.S.-designed F-16 fighter jets have now arrived in Ukraine, it has been widely reported, but the government in Kyiv remains tight-lipped about the aircraft it has spent so long pleading for.
The Foreign Minister of Lithuania has apparently confirmed the arrival of F-16 multi-role jet fighters in Ukraine, following days of anonymous source but unsubstantiated statements the long-anticipated aircraft had arrived.
The Associated Press stated this week they had news of the arrival of F-16s from Ukrainian officials who couldn’t speak on record because they have been ordered not to discuss publicly. Reuters meanwhile said the same of its U.S. government sources.
All the while, the Ukrainian government itself remained circumspect about the aircraft, issuing no confirmation or denial and only really referring to the warplanes obliquely. Ukrainian state media observed, pithily: “There are unofficial public comments and confirmation that Ukraine has already received the first batch of F-16 fighter jets.”, but otherwise only said “By the end of 2024, Ukraine is expected to have a total of twenty F-16 aircraft.”
The Ukrainian state also quoted, through its official wires service, a statement of former British defence secretary Grant Shapps who had said this week: “F-16s arriving in Ukraine mark a pivotal moment against Putin and his Su-35s”.
F-16 warplanes have been on Ukraine’s shopping list of military equipment to acquire after Russia relaunched its invasion of the country in 2022, but the campaign to get the jets kicked up a gear from January 2016 when ever-larger deliveries of Western weapons apparently convinced Kyiv that such a transfer would be possible. The United States was extremely reticent to send F-16s from the beginning, given the clear opportunity for conflict escalation with the arrival of very potent weapons systems in the conflict being a gift of the United States Government.
But like so many other donations to Kyiv, like battle tanks and advanced cruise missiles, what was once impossible eventually because possible as the war dragged on and NATO governments became more invested in the conflict. As early as February 2023 Ukraine was insisting “there will be planes”, and a so-called Jet Coalition of states to make that possible was founded by July 2023.
Perhaps importantly for the escalation-limitation controls built into the gifting of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, the planes being delivered are coming from Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway. This is important because none of the aircraft going to Ukraine are being given directly by the United States, and this distance is even more firmly established by these four countries having not imported their F-16s from the United States in the first place.
Instead, when they acquired F-16s in the 1970s and 80s, they were built under licence at two factories in Europe. It is entirely possible the F-16s that are said to have arrived in Ukraine this week were built at the Fokker plant in Schipol, Amsterdam and as recently as the 1990s.
The numbers involved are small so far, perhaps as few as six planes now. Ukraine has repeatedly asserted that it needs between 120-130 F-16s to seriously impact the war, and so far only 60 are pledged.
For now, the greatest limiting factor is pilots. Ukraine could have as little as 20 qualified F-16 pilots by the end of the year, and the training period even for an experienced pilot is reasonably long. Several Western states including the United Kingdom and United States are contributing to that training, and a F-16 training school has been established in Romania to help speed things along.
Air and Space Forces Magazine cites U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa Commander General James B. Hecker, who said the arrival of the F-16 would be important for Ukraine but not an instant solution. He is reported to have said: “It’s not going to be the … golden bullet, that all of a sudden, they have F-16s, and now they’re going to go out and gain air superiority… It’s the integrated air and missile defense systems that they’re going up against.”
Indicating what roles the F-16s will be used in, is the weapons that have been given to Ukraine to arm them. Among them ate Sidewinder-type missiles for taking down other aircraft, HARM missiles used for taking out enemy Radar sites for the suppression of enemy air defence (‘SEAD’), and air-dropped bombs for ground-attack roles.
The anticipation of arrival of F-16s has seen a change in behaviour for both sides. Ukraine has been stepping up attacks on Russian air defence sites, making it harder for Moscow to shoot down the new planes when they arrive. Russia, on the other hand, has been bombing Ukrainian airfields capable of hosting F-16s in Ukraine, making their deployment more difficult. While Ukraine has belittled Russia for making missile strikes on disused airfields in the past, there may be method in the madness.
Steps taken to distance the United States from the donation of F-16s or not, the danger of a Russian retaliation remains and they have threatened as much in the past. In February 2023 when the donation of F-16s was first being seriously discussed, officials in Moscow stated the idea that the West sending jets without escalation was “absurd”.
Russian spokesman Maria Zakharova said then: “Is the French president really sure that supplying the Kiev regime with arms, heavy weapons and aircraft for combat operations will not escalate the situation?”… I refuse to believe that a grown man can have such logic.”
