Tuesday, Wisconsin held its Presidential Preference Primary, with polls closing at 8:00 p.m. Central Time. While the nominations of the major parties have been secured and are essentially awaiting procedural formalities, Wisconsin’s primary still offers important information looking forward.
Wisconsin is a key swing state for the presidential hopefuls, with presidential candidates winning by razor-thin margins. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Wisconsin with a 0.63-point margin over then-incumbent President Donald Trump, a tighter race than initially anticipated. This victory contrasted with Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary Clinton by a 0.77-point margin. Notably, Biden’s margin of victory in Wisconsin surpassed those of Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004, respectively.
In Wisconsin, the Democrats have two problems going into the 2024 general presidential election, and both of them are of their own making. The first cracks in the foundation appear as Wisconsin’s Pro-Palestine Democrats cast protest votes in opposition to the conflict in Gaza. In Wisconsin, those votes are cast by selecting the “uninstructed delegation” option, signaling dissatisfaction with the candidates’ policies, in kindred efforts to Michigan’s “uncommitted” ballot option.
Out of 618,000 votes cast in the Michigan Democratic primary, over 100,000 voters opted for “uncommitted,” securing two of the state’s delegates. Notably, Biden was beaten by the “uncommitted” vote in Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab Americans make up nearly half of the population.
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A tangible symbol of the growing strife appeared when the White House canceled an iftar dinner commemorating Ramadan with Muslim community leaders on Tuesday after several Muslim invitees declined in protest of President Joe Biden’s support for Israel’s war on Hamas. Sentiments from the Muslim American community are that it is unacceptable for Muslim leaders to share a meal with the White House, given their perception that the Biden administration is supporting the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza while the Palestinian people face a starvation crisis.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed that President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris would instead meet with Muslim community leaders on Tuesday. When asked why they would not attend the iftar, Jean-Pierre explained that they requested a meeting instead of a meal.
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As of this writing, as Wisconsin’s Presidential Primary election results roll in, it looks like the “uninstructed” option will withhold between eight and nine percent of the Democrat vote from Biden. This is a fire alarm for the Biden campaign. But it’s not their only problem, or maybe even their biggest problem: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is.
Kennedy is a problem that was not only created by Democrats by something like birthright; he may be a problem that is aimed directly at them. Following Kennedy’s comments on Monday calling Joe Biden a “bigger threat to democracy than Trump,” and a leftist, Democrat-donor running mate pick, the Kennedy campaign is churning out the stuff of nightmares for Team Biden.
The impact of Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s 2016 presidential bid serves as a cautionary tale for Democrats. Stein peeled off 31,072 votes in Wisconsin, which accounted for about 1.04 percent of the total votes cast in the state, enough to swing the pendulum in the closely contested race. Many Democrats believe that Stein’s presence on the ballot siphoned off crucial votes that could have otherwise gone to Hillary Clinton and that she was the decisive factor leading to Trump’s narrow victory in Wisconsin.
Stein, the 2016 “Spoiler” who got a percentage point in the state, is on the 2024 ballot as a third-party alternative, which is a problem in itself for Biden, but it is Kennedy’s impact that will overshadow her appearance. In a review of 11 polls conducted in Wisconsin, Kennedy is averaging 7.5 percent support. He’s not a game-changer; he’s a game-wrecker.
The dissent showcased by the protest votes and the looming third-party candidates spells trouble for the Democrats as they struggle to maintain unity and coherence in pivotal battleground states.
